By Lucille Sherman for Axios Raleigh

North Carolina is on pace to become the seventh largest state in the country in the next decade, as the state’s population will reach 11.7 million by 2030, new projections show. 

Why it matters: That level of growth would gain North Carolina yet another congressional seat, and put it ahead of Georgia and Ohio in population size, state demographer Michael Cline said in an analysis released by the Office of State Budget and Management last month. 

Driving the news: Cline also projected that North Carolina’s population would grow by some 4.3 million — the size of the Triangle and Triad’s populations combined — in the next 35 years, reaching 15.4 million by 2060. 

The big picture: Most of North Carolina’s growth within the last decade has come from the number of transplants moving into the state. 

• Close to half — 47% — of the state’s population was born outside North Carolina, according to the 2023 American Community Survey. 
• That number will only grow in the coming years, as will the number of foreign born residents, which was 9% in the census’ 2023 estimate. 
• The state is also projected to become significantly more diverse as it grows. North Carolina’s minorities could represent close to half of the state, at 48%, by 2060 — up from 39% in 2020. 

Zoom in: North Carolina is expected to become significantly more urban by 2030, with Wake County’s population projected to grow by close to 10%. 

• Johnston County is projected to grow by 13.4%, and Lee and Harnett are expected to grow so much that they will no longer be classified as rural, according to the analysis. 

• Many rural counties are expected to see continuing population declines, however. 

Between the lines: North Carolina’s growing urban areas and suburbs have long kept afloat Democrats’ hopes that the state would someday turn from purple to blue, but the 2024 election, in which cities across the country shifted red, has poked a hole in that theory. 

The intrigue: Thanks in part to a decline in the state’s birth rate, 1 in 5 North Carolinians will be 65 or older by 2030, according to the report. 

• And soon enough, North Carolina will have more older adults (65 and up) than children.

The preceding article originally appeared on March 3, 2025 at Axios Raleigh’s website and is made available here for educational purposes only. This constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 U.S.C. section 106A-117 of the U.S. Copyright Law. Any views or opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Carolina Leadership Coalition.