Source: North Carolina Department of Commerce

Raleigh, NC: The state’s seasonally adjustedSeasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that attempts to measure and remove the influences of predictable seasonal patterns to reveal how employment and unemployment change from month to month.

Over the course of a year, the size of the labor force, the levels of employment and unemployment, and other measures of labor market activity undergo fluctuations due to seasonal events including changes in weather, harvests, major holidays, and school schedules. Because these seasonal events follow a more or less regular pattern each year, their influence on statistical trends can be eliminated by seasonally adjusting the statistics from month to month.

These seasonal adjustments make it easier to observe the cyclical, underlying trend, and other nonseasonal movements in the series.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2023 unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, unchanged from November’s revised rate. The national rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent.

North Carolina’s unemployment rate decreased 0.3 of a percentage point from a year ago. The number of people employed decreased 1,622 over the month to 5,093,994 and increased 131,769 over the year. The number of people unemployed increased 3,085 over the month to 185,281 and decreased 12,762 over the year.

Seasonally adjusted Total Nonfarm employment, as gathered through the monthly establishment survey, increased 2,100 to 4,951,900 in December. Major industries experiencing increases were Leisure & Hospitality Services, 2,500; Education & Health Services, 1,500; Professional & Business Services, 1,100; Government, 800; and Trade, Transportation & Utilities, 800. Major industries experiencing decreases were Other Services, 2,100; Information, 1,000; Financial Activities, 800; Construction, 600; and Mining & Logging, 100. Manufacturing employment remained unchanged.

Since December 2022, Total Nonfarm jobs increased 99,400 with the Total Private sector increasing by 82,400 and Government increasing by 17,000. Major industries experiencing increases were Education & Health Services, 35,000; Professional & Business Services, 23,100; Leisure & Hospitality Services, 21,000; Government, 17,000; Trade, Transportation & Utilities, 11,300; Financial Activities, 2,700; and Mining & Logging, 200. Major industries experiencing decreases were Manufacturing, 4,000; Construction, 3,700; Other Services, 2,100; and Information, 1,100.

December’s County and
Area Unemployment Figures

Unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) decreased in 95 of North Carolina’s counties in December 2023, increased in three, and remained unchanged in two. Scotland County had the highest unemployment rate at 5.9 percent while Buncombe County had the lowest at 2.4 percent. All 15 of the state’s metro areas experienced rate decreases. Among the metro areas, Rocky Mount had the highest rate at 4.5 percent while Asheville had the lowest at 2.5 percent. The not seasonally adjusted statewide rate was 3.2 percent.

When compared to the same month last year, not seasonally adjusted unemployment rates decreased in 51 counties, increased in 26, and remained unchanged in 23. Seven metro areas experienced rate decreases over the year, three increased, and five remained unchanged.

The number of workers employed statewide (not seasonally adjusted) decreased in December by 28,036 to 5,058,871, while those unemployed decreased by 10,084 to 167,065. Since December 2022, the number of workers employed statewide increased 95,776, while those unemployed increased 3,277.

It is important to note that employment estimates are subject to large seasonal patterns; therefore, it is advisable to focus on over-the-year changes in the not seasonally adjusted estimates.

The next unemployment update is scheduled for Monday, March 11, 2024 when the statewide unemployment rate for January 2024 will be released.