by Sarah Michels  for Carolina Public Press

In Swain County, 16 votes separate Board of Commissioners candidates Bobby Jenkins and Kenneth Parton. While Republican Tanner Lawson has already solidified his spot as the top vote-getter in the race, Jenkins and Parton are fighting for the second spot on the board and it could come down to provisional ballots. 

Jenkins can’t celebrate or breathe a sigh of relief yet. Because in Swain County, 147 provisional ballots are yet to be counted. 

“These, plus the additional absentee (ballots) could change the outcome,” Swain County Elections Director Adam Byrnes told Carolina Public Press. “We don’t know yet.”

Across North Carolina, county boards of elections staff are going through provisional ballots, one by one, researching to see whether they should be counted, partially counted or not counted. For a race to be within a narrow enough vote margin that provisional ballots make a difference is uncommon, it does happen from time to time. 

The suspense will end after each county board of elections conducts its canvass 10 days after the election, which is Friday. During the canvass, the boards finally tally official results. Until then, the posted results remain unofficial. 

Statewide, the closest race may be between North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs and Jefferson Griffin, who are separated by less than 8,000 votes currently. Griffin, the Republican challenger, is leading.

According to State Board of Elections data, about 64,000 provisional ballots were cast in this election, so it’s technically possible for them to make a difference in the outcome, if enough are counted in Riggs’ favor. 

 A similar Supreme Court race in 2020 came down to a recount that wasn’t resolved until December that year, though a much smaller number of votes separated the candidates at this point that year.

Heading into the 2024 election, several issues about how provisional ballots in North Carolina would work remained to be seen in practice. This year was the first time North Carolina’s voter ID law was implemented for a general election, so would the state see an increase in provisional ballots due to a lack of photo ID?

Western North Carolina was struck by Tropical Storm Helene shortly before voting began — would that have any impact on the volume of provisional ballots? 

Carolina Public Press dug into the data to see who, where and why people cast provisional ballots this election. 

What are provisional ballots and how are they counted? 

In North Carolina, voters are not turned away. But that doesn’t mean their votes will ultimately count.

Under state law, if someone comes to vote and claims to be an eligible, registered voter in that jurisdiction, even if they don’t appear as such according to election officials’ information, they may cast a provisional ballot. 

Those ballots are separated for further research during the 10-day period between Election Day and the post-election canvass, when official results are tallied by each county. 

Not all such ballots are ultimately counted. Individuals are provided with a lengthy application before provisionally voting to share information that elections officials can later use to research their eligibility. 

Robeson County Elections Director Tina Bledsoe said her staff spends at least 20 minutes on each provisional ballot during the interim to check whether a voter is eligible. That may include consulting with the DMV to see whether a voter registered there, checking to see whether the voter was removed during regular list maintenance due to inactivity or whether the voter didn’t register in time and isn’t eligible to vote this cycle. 

The process is “tedious,” Bledsoe said. “I wish we’d be like some of these counties and not have but a handful.” 

In 2020 and 2024, Robeson County had the highest proportion of voters who cast provisional ballots — 2.8% and 2.4%, respectively. This year, that adds up to more than 1,100 provisional ballots in Robeson County that Bledsoe and her team need to research. 

Someone might cast a provisional ballot for a variety of reasons. 

A voter may have moved to a different address within the county and not reported it to the county board of elections. They may have been previously removed from the voter rolls for a felony conviction, out-of-state move, death or inactivity. 

Swain County Elections Director Adam Byrnes said if voters don’t vote in two consecutive federal elections, and don’t respond to mail sent to their address on file, they may be removed for being an inactive voter. 

Voters may show up to the wrong precinct, and instead of traveling to the correct precinct after being told, may decide to vote a provisional ballot and only have the races that appear on their correct precinct’s ballot counted. 

An election official may not be able to find or recognize a voter’s address on file. Maybe, the voter simply hasn’t registered to vote and is unaware.

In some cases, the voter may have already voted but be trying to vote again, whether out of malicious intent, an attempt to override their absentee ballot or just confusion. 

In other cases, voting hours are extended, and those who cast ballots during the extension must vote provisionally. This cycle, polling place hours in Burke and Wilson counties were extended, but nobody took advantage of them, according to State Board provisional ballot data. 

With this year’s enforcement of the new voter ID law, voters may have cast provisional ballots because they didn’t bring their ID, or don’t have an acceptable one. Voters could fill out a photo ID exception form to explain why they didn’t have an ID, or agree to bring their acceptable ID to the county board of elections by the day before the canvass. 

Under state law, the exception form will be accepted unless the county board of elections unanimously determines that the information on the form is false. 

Voters who cast a provisional ballot can check the status of their ballot — counted, partially counted or not counted — on the North Carolina State Board of Elections website with their county, date of birth and PIN given to them by election officials. 

In 2020, 33% of approximately 40,000 provisional ballots ended up being fully counted, while 7% were partially counted and 60% were rejected. 

Most voters who did not appear to have a record of registration upon arrival at their polling place were denied, as well as those who didn’t provide an ID in cases when it was needed before the voter ID law, such as with new registrations.

Meanwhile, the majority of voters who had an unreported move, voted during extended hours, were previously removed from the rolls for some reason or had an unrecognized address were ultimately counted. 

Did more people vote provisionally than usual? 

More than 23,000 more people cast provisional ballots in 2024 than in 2020. 

Most cast them on Election Day, since there is an option for same-day registration during early voting that may remedy some of the top reasons for provisionally voting. 

Urban centers had the most provisional ballots — Wake County had more than 5,000 cast on Election Day, while Mecklenburg, Forsyth, Cumberland and Guilford rounded out the top five. 

Higher percentages of voters cast provisional ballots in some smaller counties. In Robeson, Scotland, Pitt, Avery and Swain counties, more than 2% of total voters cast provisional ballots. 

“Part of it was a lot of sort of lower propensity voters coming out, some of whom had just been removed from the rolls due to inactivity,” Byrnes said. 

Beyond that, he thinks the increase was due to the county and state’s emphasis on not turning anyone away. 

Locally, a number of people came to vote early and utilize same-day registration, but did not have the proof of residence they needed under the Help America Vote Act. Many said they would return with their paychecks as proof, and it’s a “waiting game” to see who ends up showing up at their county elections office before canvass, he said, 

The voter ID law increased the work, but not in a huge way, Byrnes added.

According to State Board data, 11% of those who cast provisional ballots this election did so because they did not provide an ID. That compares to the 61% who did not have a record of registration and the 10% who showed up to the wrong precinct and decided to stay and vote there anyway. 

About 7% of provisional voters each cited an unreported move or previous removal from the voter rolls, while very few cast provisional ballots because of unrecognized addresses, duplicate votes or extended hours. 

Overall, provisional voting was comparable to 2020 with the voter ID law being the primary difference. 

Scotland County Elections Director Dell Parker said she doesn’t feel like provisional ballots were more of an issue this year than in previous years. They did have quite a few people vote out of precinct thought, she said. Others hadn’t registered before coming to vote. 

With two employees, they are “swamped” with the provisional ballot research, but “no matter what it takes, we will be ready” before Friday’s canvass, she said. 

Tropical Storm Helene did have an impact, albeit a small one, in some counties. 

Avery County Elections Director Sheila Ollis said they lost 14 voting sites and combined all the voters into 11 sites instead. People may have been confused and gone to the closest site, instead of their correct precinct, she said. 

Henderson County Elections Specialist Aaron Troutman said they have seen an increase in provisional ballots, but it’s divided between voter ID confusion, Helene impacts and other factors. Not many people used the natural disaster exception for photo ID, he said. Byrnes said about three voters used that exception in Swain County. 

In Buncombe County, 122 people cited a natural disaster on their photo ID exception form, while all other counties in the Helene region had between zero and 30 people use the same exception. 

Friday, counties will meet for canvass. Then, if they finish before the end of the day, North Carolinians will know for certain who will represent them for the next few years, except in cases where a recount is needed. 

In Swain County, Jenkins or Parton will claim victory in the commissioner race or the matter could go to a recount. 

The same situation will play out in numerous close local races statewide, as well as the close state Supreme Court race. Several legislative races in which the top candidates are separated by only a few hundred votes might also see a change in outcome or head to recounts. 

“Obviously people want to know who’s won, but there hasn’t been a ton of additional scrutiny due to that,” Byrnes said. 

“I think everyone’s being respectful and kind of understanding that it’s a process, and that we’ll have the results on Friday.” 

The preceding article originally appeared on November 13, 2024 at Carolina Public Press’s website and is made available here for educational purposes only. This constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in Title 17 U.S.C. section 106A-117 of the U.S. Copyright Law.